Blog

The following information is based on a report originally published by A Midwestern Doctor. Key details have been streamlined and editorialized for clarity and impact. Read the original report here.

Tucker Carlson’s face said it all when Senator Ron Johnson revealed he CURED his acid reflux with hydrochloric acid—after years on Zantac, Prilosec, and Nexium.

The medical industry wants you to believe heartburn comes from too much acid.

Johnson discovered the opposite to be true. The real problem was not enough.

Once he started supplementing with betaine HCl, his symptoms disappeared. No more reflux. And he only remembers to take it half the time.

He says it worked better than anything doctors ever gave him.

Why? Because hydrochloric acid is exactly what your stomach is supposed to produce in the first place.

Sometimes the cure isn’t high-tech. It’s just common sense.

Most people think acid reflux is caused by too much stomach acid.

That assumption sounds logical. Acid burns. Reflux burns.

Therefore, it must be too much acid. Simple enough.

But physiology doesn’t actually work that way.

And the misunderstanding has quietly put millions of people on drugs that may be making the problem worse.

Here’s the part rarely explained during a clinic visit.

The lower esophageal sphincter—the muscular valve between your stomach and your throat—is pH-sensitive.

It is designed to close tightly when it detects sufficient acidity in the stomach.

If acid levels are too low, that signal is weak. The valve relaxes. And stomach contents drift upward.

That means reflux is often not an overflow of acid.

It’s a failure of the lower esophageal sphincter (LES) to close because the stomach isn’t acidic enough to trigger the closure reflex.

That single mechanism flips the entire narrative.

Because suppressing acid in that situation removes the very signal needed to fix the leak.

This information comes from the work of medical researcher A Midwestern Doctor. For all the sources and details, read the full report below.

This is where proton pump inhibitors—or PPI—enter the picture.

A single PPI dose can suppress most stomach acid production for an entire day.

Originally, they were approved for rare conditions like Zollinger–Ellison syndrome—true acid overproduction.

Short-term use. Four to eight weeks.

Instead, they became lifelong heartburn drugs.

And here’s what happens next.

If the LES only closes in response to sufficient acidity, and you suppress that acidity, the valve remains loose.

The moment even small amounts of acid return, they reflux upward.

That’s rebound GERD (gastroesophageal reflux disease).

Patients experience worse symptoms when they try to stop.

So they restart.

And the cycle continues.

Most doctors never measure stomach acid—and almost none know how to restore it safely.

The full article from A Midwestern Doctor includes the exact step-by-step HCl dosing protocol, PPI taper strategy, and when NOT to use it.

But reflux is just one piece.

Stomach acid performs multiple critical functions that are barely emphasized in medical training.

It activates pepsin—the enzyme that begins protein digestion.

Without sufficient acidity, long protein chains aren’t properly broken apart.

That means fewer amino acids absorbed.

And amino acids are the raw material for neurotransmitters, muscle repair, immune signaling, hormone production.

This isn’t minor digestion trivia—it’s foundational biology.

When proteins are not fully digested, fragments can pass through the intestinal barrier and provoke immune reactions.

Over time, that may contribute to food sensitivities and autoimmune activation.

This is one reason low stomach acid has been repeatedly observed in patients with autoimmune disorders.

Not occasionally. Repeatedly.

Then there’s sterilization.

Stomach acid is the first line of defense against pathogens.

People on acid suppressing medications are about four times more likely to develop certain foodborne infections.

Hospitalized patients on acid blockers are significantly more likely to develop pneumonia.

In ventilated patients, one study found roughly double the pneumonia risk—and a 60% higher mortality from hospital-acquired pneumonia.

That’s not theoretical.

If stomach acid sterilizes what we swallow, what happens when you chemically remove it every day for years?

The infection data alone raises uncomfortable questions.

Mineral absorption is another overlooked piece.

Iron absorption can drop 50–67% with antacid use.

Calcium absorption improved five-fold in one study when stomach acidity was restored.

Magnesium, zinc, and other essential minerals also require an acidic environment to separate from food and become absorbable ions.

Suppress acid long enough, and deficiencies become predictable—not mysterious.

Vitamin B12 absorption depends on acid-mediated release from dietary proteins.

Low B12 is linked to neuropathy, fatigue, cognitive decline, and mood disorders.

Yet PPIs are most commonly prescribed to older adults—the same population already at risk for declining acid production and nutrient absorption.

That overlap is not trivial.

In 1931, a physician followed more than 200 children with asthma.

Over 80% had below-normal stomach acid secretion.

When given dilute hydrochloric acid, many improved dramatically—some fully resolving.

These findings were replicated by others in the early 20th century.

But inhalers and steroids became the dominant model. And the acid connection largely faded from memory.

Why?

Silent reflux adds another layer.

Not all reflux causes heartburn. Some patients develop chronic sore throat, post-nasal drip, ear pressure, chronic cough, sinus issues, even burning in the mouth.

ENT clinics see these symptoms daily.

Often the root cause is low-acid reflux irritating tissues that aren’t designed to handle even small amounts of stomach contents.

Heartburn is only the loud version.

Silent reflux may be driving asthma, sinus issues, chronic cough, and ENT complaints—without ever triggering classic burning pain.

The full report will change how you think about it.

Long-term PPI data has become harder to ignore.

Large observational studies have linked use to:

• A 19% increase in overall mortality.

• A 28% higher risk of major cardiac events.

• A 74% increase in severe kidney disease—with a 142% higher mortality among those who develop it.

• A 33% increase in dementia risk.

These are not subtle signals.

There are mechanical reflux fixes, specific herbal bitters, sauerkraut protocols, and even natural H. pylori strategies most patients are never told about.

Subscribe to A Midwestern Doctor for the full roadmap.

Meta-analyses reviewing millions of patients suggest roughly double the risk of stomach cancer with long-term use.

Risk of Clostridium difficile infection rises.

Community-acquired pneumonia increases.

In septic patients, mortality rates are higher.

Even COVID mortality was reported elevated among users.

When you line up the pattern, it’s difficult to call it benign.

And yet the drugs remain over-the-counter.

Which reinforces the perception that they’re harmless.

Immediate symptom relief is visible.

Long-term physiological disruption is not.

That’s how dependency normalizes.

Another irony: stomach acid production naturally declines with age—especially after 60.

GERD incidence increases with age.

But instead of asking whether acid deficiency might be driving reflux in older adults, the default assumption remains excess acid.

There are other contributors, of course.

Hiatal hernias increase abdominal pressure and can mechanically force reflux.

Certain medications—bronchodilators, calcium channel blockers, opioids—relax the LES.

Some foods irritate already inflamed tissue.

This isn’t a single-cause explanation. But acid deficiency is far more common than most realize.

Stomach acid production is energy-intensive.

The cells that produce it are packed with mitochondria.

If mitochondrial function declines—as it often does in chronic illness—acid production can fall.

Autoimmune attack on acid-producing cells can also reduce output.

H. pylori infections decrease acid production.

Multiple pathways converge on deficiency.

If low stomach acid can impair protein digestion, nutrient absorption, immune defense, and valve closure all at once—what looks like separate diseases may share one upstream driver.

That possibility deserves attention.

There’s a broader pattern here.

1 – A symptom appears.
2 – A drug suppresses it quickly.
3 – The underlying physiology is left unaddressed.
4 – Over time, secondary consequences accumulate—and are treated with additional drugs.
5 – Polypharmacy expands.

In one deprescribing study of elderly patients, removing unnecessary medications reduced one-year mortality from 45% to 21%.

Stomach acid isn’t an evolutionary oversight. It’s actually metabolically expensive to produce.

If the body invests that much energy in generating hydrochloric acid from birth through midlife, it likely serves critical functions.

The more important question may not be how to eliminate it—but why we assumed it was expendable.

Heartburn feels simple.

The physiology underneath it is not.

And when a symptom becomes a lifetime prescription affecting infection risk, mineral status, cognitive health, kidney function, and cancer risk—it’s worth slowing down.

Sometimes the burn isn’t excess—it’s deficiency.

And that distinction changes the entire strategy.

Share

Thanks for reading! This information was based on a report originally published by A Midwestern Doctor. Key details were streamlined and editorialized for clarity and impact. Read the original report here.

For a deeper dive into what modern medicine has overlooked—or intentionally buried—check out these other eye-opening reports by A Midwestern Doctor:

DMSO is a Miraculous Therapy for Chronic Pain and Musculoskeletal Injuries

The Great Alzheimer’s Scam and The Proven Cures They’ve Buried for Billions

The Unsettling Brain Impact of Screen Time in Kids

While you’re at it, give A Midwestern Doctor a follow. No one brings more research, clinical insight, or historical context when it comes to exposing the health myths we’ve all been fed. This is easily one of the most valuable accounts you’ll ever follow.

If you haven’t subscribed to this Substack yet, take a moment to read what some of the most powerful voices in the medical freedom/truth movement have to say:

“The Vigilant Fox has been putting in a lot of work to create a news platform that shares the stories we want to hear about and brings attention to the most important things to know about. If you want a daily newsfeed in alignment with our …”

– A Midwestern Doctor, The Forgotten Side of Medicine

“The Vigilant Fox absolutely is on top of things. We must support our fighters, and the Fox is fighting with truth.”

– Tom Renz, Tom Renz’s Newsletter

“Excellent capture of key video presentations on evolving pandemic science.”

– Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH, FOCAL POINTS (Courageous Discourse)

The Bank of Greece yesterday (5/3) unveiled the anniversary silver coin, which was issued on the occasion of the 200th anniversary of the naming of Ermoupolis.

The presentation took place in the context of the Monetary Programme for 2026 at the Central Branch of the Bank of Greece in Athens.

The municipality of Syros – Ermoupolis was represented at the event by the mayor, Alexis Athanasiou, and the deputy mayor of Financial Services, Dimitris Kosmas.

A seal of history that recalls the role of Ermoupolis

The mayor of Syros-Ermoupolis, Alexis Athanasiou, stressed today through a post on Facebook that “the issuance of this coin is an act of high symbolism for our place. It is a national recognition of the historical journey of our city, which was born from refugees“.

“The initiative of the Bank of Greece to commemorate this anniversary by issuing an anniversary coin has special significance for the island. This particular is not only a collector’s item of aesthetics and symbolism, but is a stamp of history that recalls the role of Ermoupolis in shaping modern Greece,” he noted.

At the same time, Athanasiou stressed that the silver coin is “an object that encapsulates the history, values and identity of our city and transmits them to future generations“.

Greetings at yesterday’s event were given by the Governor of the Bank of Greece and a close friend of Syros, Mr. Yannis Stournaras and the President of the Academy of Athens, Mr. Nikiforos Diamantouros.

How it was named

The speakers were Mr. Nikolaos Anastasopoulos Assistant Professor of Modern History, Mr. Konstantinos Grigoropoulos Deputy Director of IETA, Ms. Maria Geranaki Rev. Head of the Department of Wound Typing (IETA).

Ermoupoli was founded in 1822, during the Greek Revolution of 1821. At that time many Greek refugees from islands destroyed by war, such as Chios and Psara, fled to Syros.

There, near the old settlement of Ano Syros, they began to create a new settlement that soon developed into an important commercial center.

The name of the town was decided in an original way, in a council held in 1826 by the first inhabitants of the town outside the church.

It was named Ermoupoli in honor of the ancient god of trade Hermes. The name was proposed by the refugee Chian refugee Loukas Rallis.

The name was chosen because the city quickly developed into an important port and commercial center of the Greek state.

The post of the mayor of Syros-Ermoupolis, Alexis Athanasiou, on Facebook:

“From our participation yesterday in the presentation of the Monetary Programme at the Bank of Greece for 2026.

I am honoured and excited to welcome the presentation of the 2026 Monetary Programme, which includes the anniversary silver coin issued by the Bank of Greece, on the occasion of the 200th anniversary of the naming of Ermoupolis.

The issuance of this coin is an act of high symbolism for our country. It is a national recognition of the historical journey of our city, which was born from refugees.

Their vision, daring and creativity developed Ermoupolis into the capital of trade, shipping and industry of the newly established Greek state.

The initiative of the Bank of Greece to commemorate this anniversary by issuing an anniversary coin has special significance for the island. This particular one is not only a collector’s item of aesthetics and symbolism, but is a stamp of history that recalls the role of Ermoupolis in shaping modern Greece.

An object that encapsulates the history, values and identity of our city and passes them on to future generations.

As Mayor of Syros-Ermoupolis, I express my sincere thanks to the Bank of Greece and personally to Yannis Stournaras, Governor of the Bank of Greece and a friend of our island, for their cooperation and practical recognition of the importance of this anniversary, as well as to the Association of Syrians, with its President Dimitris Vafia and its Board of Directors, for the help they have given us throughout this period.

May the celebration of the 200th anniversary of the naming of our city be a starting point for new creative goals for the future.”

The escalating tensions in the Middle East are beginning to cause significant disruptions in global air cargo transport networks, as airspace closures and flight restrictions are forcing airlines to redesign their routes and suspend operations along critical transport corridors.

The conflict in Iran and the restrictions imposed on parts of the region’s airspace are directly affecting a significant share of global air freight transport, highlighting the decisive role of the Middle East in international supply chains.

According to a new analysis by the company WorldACD Market Data, approximately 21% of global air cargo flows are directly linked to the Middle East, whether involving cargo originating from the region, destined for it, or passing through its major aviation hubs.

The data used in the analysis is based on global air cargo figures by weight for the period November 2025 – January 2026.

The geographical position of the Middle East has turned the region into a key connection point between Europe, Asia and Africa. Major aviation hubs operate as primary transshipment gateways for international cargo flows, serving thousands of cargo flights as well as combined passenger-and-cargo transport operations.

The WorldACD analysis clearly records this role, presenting the distribution of global air cargo associated with the Middle East:

–0.4% of global air cargo is transported within the Middle East

–2.2% concerns exports from the Middle East to the rest of the world

–8.8% originates from international markets with the Middle East as the final destination

–9.5% of global cargo is transported through the region’s aviation hubs as transit cargo

In total, these flows correspond to 21% of global air cargo activity, underscoring the strategic importance of the region’s aviation network.

Of particular interest is the fact that the largest share of these flows concerns transit cargo, meaning goods that neither originate in nor have their final destination in the Middle East but use the region’s major aviation hubs as intermediate transshipment points.

These shipments account for 9.5% of global air cargo, confirming the region’s role as a key bridge between continents.

The current geopolitical tension, however, is creating significant challenges for this network. Airspace closures and route changes are increasing flight times, airline operating costs and uncertainty within supply chains.

The effects are not limited to the aviation sector alone. Delays and flight reroutings can affect critical high-value and time-sensitive cargo flows, such as electronic products, pharmaceutical preparations and perishable goods.

As the Middle East constitutes one of the most important transport hubs between East and West, any disruption to its aviation network can have broader consequences for global trade.

These developments once again highlight how sensitive international supply chains are to geopolitical crises and how critical the role of major aviation hubs is in maintaining the smooth flow of global trade.

I remember in 2021 encountering at least a couple of the people who were dedicating their valuable skills and time, for no monetary gain.

I was impressed because, it seemed to me, they could instead sell their skills and time to commercial enterprises.

Years later, there is now a larger group of people who have unusual talents in two or more languages. You might think this couldn’t possibly be of any great significance. Surely, you might think, every country has its own freedom fighters, who write and speak in their own language?

The reality is that only a tiny number of people, from anywhere, have particular professional qualifications, credentials and credibility.

Many countries don’t have every industrial sector, so they don’t have many, if any, home-grown talent in some fields. Unless the authors / speakers bringing forward vital information also speaks another language, it’s possible that the people of such a country don’t know anything about certain campaigners.

A translation service can be extraordinarily powerful in spreading information to a sizeable number of other countries. I salute the efforts and dedication of the volunteers involved and I also thank them for selfless, uncredited work in translating & adding subtitles to some of my better known videos (“Silver Bullet” and “Final Warning”).

Please consider supporting this courageous group of talented volunteers in their important work which, as far as I know it, is unique.

Best wishes

Mike

A key feature of what the translation team offer is the use of bilingual native speakers to produce proper translations.

Independent News Europe, a crazily undervalued source for independent information, is a grassroots, multi-lingual media platform.

In their own words,

It is dedicated to spreading vital truths from silenced researchers and encouraging critical questions and topics ignored by mainstream media, to be discussed. Many important issues that humanity and the planet are facing are not being uncovered, the best solutions often overlooked. In fact, finding the best solutions depends on having access to correct, relevant and up to date information and being allowed to talk – and think – freely. Every article is translated into multiple languages by real people, ensuring the platform reaches the widest possible audience across language barriers.

When Children’s Health Defense US shut down international chapters, the dedicated European translation team — which had tirelessly translated texts and subtitled videos for them for years — was suddenly left hanging, without funding or structure.

But they didn’t. Two amazing ladies recognized the urgent need to continue to counter the threat of censorship and government misinformation.

Rather than disband they decided to reinvent the effort, emphasising that conveying silenced information matters more than any name or affiliation. With remaining CHD volunteers and zero financial backing, they created the multilingual platform Independent News Europe.

Today, the IndepNews newspage features an editorial team of 8, plus 7 collaborating authors providing original content — with the author pool continually growing to cover more diverse topics. The entire operation is volunteer-run.

They are not rich, not politicians, and not paid to push any agenda. They are regular people — someone’s father, mother, daughter, or son — deeply frustrated by corruption and committed to truth. However, overall, they are well educated people, many of them with academic degrees and expertise in various fields.

All team members are unpaid, and the project even incurs personal costs for the two leading women.

Independent News Europe seeks to deliver vital information to the broadest possible audience, overcoming language barriers to unite people against elite agendas. The first step is accessing real, unfiltered knowledge about what is truly happening and what science really is saying — information mainstream outlets rarely provide. Too many crucial questions go unasked, investigative journalism often lacks depth or context, and major issues affecting humanity and the planet remain hidden. True solutions require accurate, up-to-date facts.

By informing citizens across Europe and beyond, the platform empowers them to unite across national borders and influence existential decisions made by those in power and amplifies the voices of those challenging the system.

Independent News Europe stand as a grassroots, human-powered news-alternative in an era of increasing AI-generated and unverified content. While AI can assist in initial drafts, every final piece of writing is thoroughly reviewed by skilled native-speaker translators to preserve the original meaning and quality.

The team also subtitles videos and distributes them through their website, Rumble, Odysee, X accounts, and various national channels. Currently active in 10 languages, they have the capacity to return to the 20+ languages covered during the CHD Europe era.

Independent News Europe is an incredible resource for spreading writing and videos of suppressed voices. They already collaborate with several talented writers providing original material and are constantly expanding their pool of authors to cover a wide range of topics. Any independent journalist, scientist, doctor, lawyer, or freedom-loving individual – if you have important information or news that you wish to see published, translated into several other languages, spread and discussed — this is an opportunity as your truth-spreading efforts can gain significant reach here. Both Final Warning and Silver Bullet were translated and spread by INE.

Are you sure of your written native language and understand English well? With some time to make a real difference? Do contact them. They need more volunteers.

While IndepNews Europe offers free translation and publishing services to content creators publishing on the newspage, its running costs — at least €1,000 annually for website maintenance and plugins — remain uncovered. Donations are sorely needed. Please consider even a small gift.

https://indepnews.org/en/donation/

3 pence a year from each person subscribed to my Substack would sort them out. A tiny fraction will help. A tiny contribution from many people could cover their needs — for example, if 1% of my supporters give a fiver, the basics are secured for a year.

They are also looking for sponsors! Businesses or publishing houses e.g. whose products they could place as ads embedded in their articles.

and via Rumble.

In countries where Rumble is censored alternative routes are used.

If you are trying to spread the truth your work could be helped in this way. Both Final Warning and Silver Bullet were spread by INE.

This appears as a free service to writers. However, the running costs for INE are not covered by donations which are sorely needed. They do need to get at least 1000 Euros per year just to pay the maintenance for the website and its plugins.

In the last 6 months they have had one €50 donation only.

https://indepnews.org/en/donation/

The team themselves are all unpaid volunteers – indeed it costs the steerers money. Please consider even a small gift. As I say, 3 pence a year from each person subscribed to my Substack would sort them out. But if 1% give a fiver they are covered for a year.

Can you help in this regard? Are you bilingual? With time to offer?

They aim to help spread the words of those fighting the machine to as wide an audience as possible – in their “spare” time.

They have capacity for many more languages. Currently 9-10 it could easily match the 20+ of the CHDEurope days.

If you have time and fluency in two languages do contact them. Similarly if you have information to spread, businesses to promote or support you can offer.

A fantastic initiative.

Mike, Tim

Help me speak by subscribing here (all monies to Tim) or to Suavek ‘s Fraud Prevention Hotline.

No content will ever be behind any paywall.

Hello, the military operations in the Middle East continue, the Americans and the Israelis claim they are close to the full “defensive exhaustion” of Iran, and that may well be the case. It seems that the regime of the mullahs being unable to even minimally counterattack is probably near; what no one predicts or even estimates with any reliable indications is the next day in Iran. Let’s first see who the interlocutors of the West will be, analysts say, because the rate at which they are being physically eliminated is high. Otherwise, the markets are reacting rather calmly; of course oil prices have surged, but it is still early for conclusions. Athens is closely monitoring all developments, Mitsotakis is speaking with everyone he needs to speak to, and for the time being the country is handling the crisis properly. Of course, K.M. was not quite as much of a tough guy as the socialist Sánchez who, as soon as Trump slightly bared his teeth at him, sent his very best frigate—but what can you do. If nothing else, he disappointed everyone from Haris Doukas to Dimitris Avramopoulos, who declared that “the Spanish prime minister stood up to the U.S.”, but in the meantime the Spanish prime minister had not heard him on Greek TV and sent the ship anyway. In general, however, in the last few hours there has been a silence from “The Bitter Ones S.A.—Antonis Samaras, Kostas Karamanlis (Rafina) and Co., formerly New Democracy.” I hear from colleagues that the first days of polling show a “surge” for Mitsotakis and the government due to the war crisis; it seems logical to me but temporary, though not without significance. People always “record” on their hard drive that there is stability and responsibility in the stance of a prime minister, and even his opponents “grant” Mitsotakis that he has a certain institutional demeanor and steadiness in his views. Among other things, I also read yesterday Karystianou’s statement on the events and although it was a sympathetic statement—“we demand a world without wars…”—it reminded me of something like Yoko Ono and the Beatles’ “imagine all the people living life in peace.” What can you comment?

Mitsotakis–Macron

-We may be hearing it from the French, but I understand that the Mitsotakis–Macron phone call was quite interesting regarding the solution the French are looking for on the security of navigation in the Red Sea and then in Hormuz, where things are clearly more difficult. Because as time passes insecurity hits the economy, the Europeans are “looking around,” in communication with the Americans as well, for such a difficult region. Macron in the call with K.M. referred specifically to the case of Suez, but it is interesting that at this moment he has called both Athens and Rome. In any case, even the thought of this has quite a few operational difficulties, from the situation on the ground to who would have overall command, but exploratory contacts are taking place.

In Paris

-Since I’m mentioning Macron, let me remind you that K.M. has a scheduled trip next Tuesday to Paris to participate in the Summit on nuclear energy convened by the French president. He will go as planned, unless the geopolitical balances in the region change drastically, in which case he might also have a one-on-one with Macron, who under normal circumstances will come to Athens after Easter for the renewal of the Greek-French defense cooperation.

Papastavrou–Samaras

-I wrote to you in recent days, on the occasion of Samaras’s “attack” on the government over the contracts with Chevron, that it is interesting that the attack also catches one of his own people, Energy Minister Papastavrou. Until a few months ago Papastavrou was trying to act as a “channel” between the government and Samaras, but I understand that lately the relations between the two have also worsened. In this context I listened with interest yesterday to the Environment and Energy Minister from Parliament responding to the criticism over the Chevron contracts, saying that the contractual provision even for extreme cases—and therefore the safeguarding of the State—is a standard legal practice that does not mean acceptance or recognition of such cases.

EKCOMED–TV Channels

-An interesting discussion (sic) is currently unfolding around the allocation of the resources of EKCOMED, which constitute basic “fuel” for the TV channels. I remind you that every year roughly one third of the money goes to subsidizing series on the six private channels and two thirds to series on platforms and foreign productions filmed in Greece. Last year, the package for the private channels was 20+ million euros and was distributed equally. This year, however, channels that do not have series in their programming (SKAI, Star, Open) are trying to bring shows or reality programs into the equation as well. Obviously, the subsidy criteria are determined by the Ministry of Culture and EKCOMED, and there is generally “good will” along the lines of: why, for example, shouldn’t SKAI’s Voice or Star’s Master Chef be programs eligible for subsidies? I understand, of course, that the complications begin in the case of Open, which is also interested, since it does not produce series but has essentially fully assigned its entertainment programming to Koklonis, who still has some tax and legal pending issues. If the subsidy criteria “open up,” in any case, the devil will be in the details of the wording. Note that I, as a commentator of good intentions, called the whole matter an “interesting discussion.” Someone else might call it an “interesting transaction,” because, after all, elections are coming too, right?

Odysseas–Adonis–Sánchez!

-A major brand is the PASOK MP from Arcadia Odysseas Konstantinopoulos, but these New Democrats don’t have… a clue either: all together they have set out to drive Androulakis crazy. Konstantinopoulos made a post that was institutional and serious and scolded the supporters of the “heroic” Spanish socialist Sánchez. Adonis picked it up and publicly… praised him while denouncing the hypocrisy of the Left regarding the Spanish Prime Minister. I remind you here that Georgiadis and Konstantinopoulos have had an excellent relationship since the time they were at the Ministry of Development, as minister and deputy minister respectively, during the Samaras–Venizelos coalition government. I also remind you that Odysseas had warmly supported Haris Doukas in the internal party elections, but that did not prevent him from fully distancing himself from the left-leaning outbursts of the mayor of Athens in favor of Sánchez. The first muddle is created in PASOK, and immediately afterward the government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis comes to… tie the knot. He reminded that Spain “has chosen to arm a country that maintains an active casus belli outside any logic and international law against a country that is a member of the European Union and NATO, which is Greece,” something that “the domestic ideological doubters also pretend to forget, because they put their ideological obsessions above the interests of their country,” and concluded: “What I say, perhaps even better than I say it, was also said by the Vice President of Parliament and PASOK MP, Mr. Konstantinopoulos.”

When the offers for Lavrio open

-The hearing of the appeals filed with the Council of State regarding the concession of the port of Lavrio was moved to the end of the month, as the procedure the day before yesterday was postponed. The case is very interesting because apart from concerning a large project involving the upgrade of the third largest port in Attica, there is the following unusual element: the appeals were not filed against the Superfund but among the participants in the tender. Specifically, appeals were filed by the consortium Olympic Marine – Cruise Terminal Investment (Prokopiou Group and MSC) and Jet Plan Shipping (interests of Marios Iliopoulos) and, as sources close to the process said, they essentially concern the legality of each other’s participation—namely whether the file is complete, whether the proper supporting documents exist, etc. The other schemes that passed to the second phase were GEK TERNA – CELESTYAL, INTERKAT (Papaioannou Group) – Beaufort Sea Shipping Corporation – Newsphone (Theodosis – Apergis), and Israel Shipyards Industries. If the tender clears the judicial-legal issues, the binding offers can be unsealed by the Superfund and within the next one to two months the preferred investor could be selected. For the Lavrio Port Authority, the intention is the sale of at least 50% of the share capital plus one share.

Superfund: Barrage of tenders

-On the occasion of what we said above about the port of Lavrio, let us add that G. Papachristou of the Superfund—after going through a period during which he placed suitable people from the private sector on the boards of the supervised companies—has mobilized the forces of the Superfund to attract investments. Just during this period the tender is running for the development of the Saltworks, where nine investors have appeared. At the same time, the tender is moving forward for Tatoi, in which five interested parties declared their presence, while an additional four investment schemes expressed interest in the tender for the concession of cruise activity at the ports of Katakolo, Patras and Kavala. Also another eleven investors appeared for the 129-acre property in Posidi in Halkidiki, while the procedures are also advancing for the leasing of beaches in Attica.

Which area of Athens has the most expensive houses

-Which is the area where almost 1 in 2 houses is now sold for over 1 million euros? It is not the southern suburbs, where prices may have soared even above 25,000 euros per square meter for isolated cases of residences right on the sea. Based on data from the digital real-estate platform Prosperty and publicly available figures from the tax authority, the highest ratio of expensive houses is found in Palaio Psychiko. Specifically, according to the company’s data, the houses for sale in the Palaio Psychiko area total 367, with an average price of 6,500 euros per sq.m. The few villas in P. Psychiko currently on the market—just nine—are sold at an average price of 10,400 euros, while for detached houses, 118 in number, the corresponding figure reaches 7,600 euros per sq.m.

Raid for cryptocurrency scams

-A team from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission traveled yesterday to Crete to assist the Greek FBI in the operation to dismantle a criminal organization involved in cryptocurrency scams. The Greek FBI had been monitoring the specific case for quite some time, until yesterday when the combined raid by the authorities took place, leading to 12 arrests. The raid was carried out simultaneously in Rethymno and Heraklion.

Well, well, it’s coming…

-It is a fact… “Barry’s is making its appearance in Athens. Make sure to sign up to the list to be informed about exclusive memberships before opening, events and much more!” This is stated on the official page of the famous American gym chain Barry’s, which now hosts the announcement for the Greek “branch.” With Tyler McBeth in the starring role, as the column has already informed you in time. Although adventurous at first, the business venture of Stefanos Kasselakis’s husband is now entering the final stretch. Of course, there are still no available dates, as it seems that the opening is placed around the end of the month or sometime in April. Barry’s Greece was initially to be housed on Kanari Street in Kolonaki, but the case went sideways and a new location was sought, which was found on Syntagma Square in a building on Othonos Street. In other words, it doesn’t get more… central than that. Of course, that also has the corresponding price in terms of rent, which information places at around 20,000 euros monthly. In any case, everything shows that Tyler will do just fine since the memberships will also be… of a corresponding level, while with all the buzz that has been created he won’t be able to keep up with the clientele. In any case, the brand is smashing it both in America and in many other countries, as it has evolved into one of the most sought-after boutique fitness studios in the world. “Barry’s is not a fitness trend. It is science and it works. It is the global destination to enjoy the best workout of your life,” as it introduces itself. For the record, Barry’s Bootcamp (now known as Barry’s) was founded in 1998 in the heart of West Hollywood by Barry Jay and John and Rachel Mumford, launching pioneering high-intensity interval training classes in a group environment. A central element of the whole project is the Red Room, a space with red lighting, loud music and many treadmills. In 2011 the brand conquered New York and in the same year the first studio outside the U.S. opened in Bergen, Norway. In the following years spectacular growth followed both in America and abroad, in London, Dubai, Milan, Stockholm and many other major cities, now counting more than 85 locations. Well, it was Athens’s turn too… via Tyler.

The kiss of life for Greek Real Estate

-The bombings in the Middle East and the Iranians’ asymmetric threats are proving to be powerful fuel for the surge of the Greek real estate market. Every new round of tensions in the region turns Greece into the closest, safest and most welcoming place a well-off resident of Tel Aviv, Beirut or Istanbul could imagine. It is a trend that has been recorded in the past, but it is now gaining new momentum. According to the annual survey of RE/MAX Greece for 2025, Israelis now constitute the majority of foreign buyers in Attica. Turkish and Lebanese investors follow. Israelis also hold first place in property transactions in Thessaloniki. Data from the Bank of Greece confirm that inflows of Israeli capital for real estate purchases reached €129 million in 2024, up +46.5% on an annual basis, with total Israeli investments already estimated at over €700 million. Today they have already conquered the €1 billion stronghold. Israelis with a residence card in Greece more than doubled in just one year: from 661 in 2024 to 1,355 in 2025, an increase of 105%. Turks are investing in Greek real estate at a pace of €300 million per year and in December 2025 they held second place in Golden Visa permits, behind only the Chinese. Security, climate, political stability and prices that remain 20 to 30% lower compared with similar markets in the Mediterranean are the strong points of Greek real estate. The cost of living in Greece is 25–30% lower, the flight lasts less than four hours, and the Golden Visa opens the door to Europe.

Greek shipping as a barometer of risk in the Strait of Hormuz

-At a time when the international shipping community is keeping its distance from the dangerous waters of the Persian Gulf, one Greek company appears to be taking up the challenge. Dynacom Tankers Management, according to information from international platforms that track ship movements, sent five vessels through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf at a time when passage has nearly frozen due to the war conflict. In practice, this strategy is old Greek shipping school. Risk, timing and geopolitical reading. The fewer ships that enter the Gulf, the greater the bargaining power for those who do. And we are not talking about a small fleet. The passage included the suezmax vessels Pola and Smyrni, as well as three LR1 product tankers, Kerala, Kavomaleas and Athina. It is not the first time that Greek interests have stepped forward into difficult seas. From the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea, Greek shipping has proven that it often functions as the market’s barometer of risk. The picture in the region resembles a wait before a storm. Dozens of tankers have anchored in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, carrying capacity equivalent to more than 500 million barrels of oil. Most shipowners prefer to wait.

K. Konstantakopoulos and the capital discipline preferred by the NYSE

-In the containership market the most interesting moves are not always the ones that make noise, but those that reveal strategic thinking. And the latest move by Costamare of Kostis Konstantakopoulos appears to be exactly that. The company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, added four newly built containerships of 3,100 teu to its orderbook, increasing the capacity of its orders by 12,400 teu. At first reading it is simply another investment in the fleet. On second reading, however, it is a move that resembles more the logic of a Wall Street investor than that of a traditional shipowner. The ships belong to the feeder category, a segment of the market that serves the major hub ports and usually offers more stable demand and long-term charters. It is no coincidence that all ten vessels Costamare currently has under construction, the six it ordered last year and the four signed recently, already have secured employment before delivery. In other words, the company is expanding its fleet without taking pure risk on the freight cycle, but with revenues “locked in” for years. This approach, which reduces exposure to market volatility, is exactly the type of capital discipline American investors prefer. The message being sent to the market is clear. Costamare is not chasing the next shipping boom, but gradually building a base of predictable cash flows in a segment with structural demand. And in a market that remains deeply cyclical, this “quiet” strategy is often the one that proves most resilient over time.

The moves of the Greeks who read the market

-Restrained but absolutely targeted, according to financial analysts of the shipping market, is the activity of Greek shipowners in the second-hand vessel market this week. The lists of second-hand sales did not record Greek purchases in dry bulk, containerships or gas carriers, with interest concentrated almost exclusively in the tanker market, confirming that Greeks continue to see prospects in this specific segment. The most characteristic was the purchase of the Suezmax STENA SUNSHINE (159,039 dwt, built in 2013 at Samsung Heavy Industries shipyards in South Korea), which according to information passed into Greek hands for around $63.5 million. The vessel is equipped with a scrubber and an eco main engine, elements that analysts note make it attractive at a time when energy efficiency and emissions regulations play an increasingly important role in investment decisions. At the same time, Greek interests also appeared on the sellers’ side. The product/chemical tanker TIGRIS (12,920 dwt, 2009, STX Offshore & Shipbuilding) was sold to buyers based in the United Arab Emirates for approximately $9.6 million. In dry bulk, two Supramax vessels changed hands: KAPTA MATHIOS (58,743 dwt, 2009, Tsuneishi Zhoushan) which headed to Chinese buyers at about $13.75 million and THEODORA (53,569 dwt, 2008, Iwagi Zosen) which was sold for around $13 million to buyers not yet disclosed. At the same time, Greek shipowners remained active in the newbuilding market. In the crude oil sector Cape Shipping ordered a VLCC with capacity of 319,000 dwt at CSSC Beihai Shipbuilding in China, with delivery in 2029. In the LNG sector Tsakos Energy Navigation secured an LNG carrier with capacity of 174,000 cubic meters with an option for another, at Samsung Heavy Industries shipyards in South Korea, with a reported price of about $255 million and delivery in 2028.

The next “bloodbath” in the IT sector

-The major projects of the Recovery Fund are coming to an end and the attention of IT companies is turning to the next major investments of the Greek state in digital transformation. One project that is set to evolve into a major thriller in the coming days, weeks and months is the new National Critical Wireless Communications System (MCNGR) with a budget of €90 million, which may reach €180 million (including option and VAT). On March 29, 2026 the public consultation for the tender documents of the international competition will be completed, which will be conducted by the National Infrastructures for Research and Technology Network S.A. (EDYTE). The knives, however, have already come out of their sheaths. The object of the project is the design, development and operational function of a unified national system of critical wireless communications for the personnel of the Hellenic Police, the Hellenic Coast Guard and other Security Corps and competent agencies operating in the field and contributing to security operations, search and rescue missions and border management. The new unified system will make use of alternative radio-network technologies, existing infrastructure, satellite and VHF/UHF solutions, ensuring full geographic coverage of the territory (land, sea and air) to transmit voice, image and data.

Water in the spotlight

-The share of EYDAP (+0.94% at €8.63) is heading rapidly toward a market capitalization of €1 billion following the Paulson–Peristeris deal. A further rise for the share of EYATH (+1.06% at €3.83), which reaches €140 million, but more impressive is the rise in the price of UNIBIOS (+3.52% at €3.52) which with a market capitalization of just €40 million sees its dreams becoming reality. Water is becoming the absolute protagonist in the Middle East as well. Everyone talks about oil prices, very few deal with water, the truly vital element in the Middle East. Kuwait obtains 90% of its drinking water from desalination plants. Oman, 86%. Saudi Arabia, roughly 70%. Across the entire Arabian Peninsula the population drinks water produced from the sea. There everyone fears a bombing attack not on an oil well, but on desalination infrastructure. Here in Europe, technologies in this sector are evolving rapidly and the issue concerns governments and local actors. The investment interest expressed for the seemingly “negligible” 9.71% stake in EYDAP will now also be transferred to other companies related to the sector.

The big opportunity for refineries

-Motor Oil (+3.03% at €35.42) and HelleniQ Energy (+1.72% at €8.7) stand out like a fly in the milk in this stock market turmoil. It is not only international oil prices that increase refining margins and profitability due to the revaluation of inventories. There is another important detail. Jet fuel, the fuel used by aircraft, saw its price more than double. From $30.8 per barrel on Friday, February 28, it soared above $70 within 72 hours. The warplanes of the United States and Israel are flying nonstop and need special fuels. It is a fact that Motor Oil and HelleniQ Energy appear to be benefiting in the short term, as inventories acquired at lower prices gain higher value, creating a positive impact on their profit margins. But that is not all. Motor Oil has the highest yield in aviation fuel of any refinery in the Mediterranean. It has made investments of more than €200 million in this sector. A corresponding advantage is also created at HelleniQ Energy, which has worked on the fuel mix since the distant past, when aircraft with piston engines used high-quality aviation gasoline (avgas) in combination with lubricating oils (motor engine oil) to ensure operation under extreme conditions.

New jobs from DYPA in Business Parks

-DYPA — the former OAED — has moved into a new era and instead of benefits it offers training opportunities and well-paid jobs. It signed a memorandum of cooperation with ETVA VIPE aiming to provide paid apprenticeships to 22,500 young people (aged 16–29) throughout Greece. These young people will be trained in DYPA schools across the country in specialties that exist in ETVA’s Business Parks. Jobs that correspond to the real needs of industry. ETVA has created a special platform so that industries established in the Industrial Areas can select the specialties and number of people they need based on the available specialties, while if there are specialties not foreseen they will be created according to the needs of industry ad hoc. They will be paid from the first day and will have both education and practical training. Costs will be covered by DYPA. In this way, an organized effort is being created — for the first time — to build a dynamic industrial “blue collar” workforce. Times are changing and modern specialties in industry pay up to 40% more than an office job.

The end of the era for technical analysis?

-Stanley Druckenmiller is a Wall Street trader who became known for his correct market positions which were largely based on technical analysis. In a television interview he stated that today the effectiveness of technical analysis has been reduced to 20% compared with 30 years ago. Back then, nobody used it. Today everyone uses it. Therefore, there is no comparative advantage or uniqueness in the reaction. Today Druckenmiller is forced to return to fundamentals. What truly matters is buying healthy companies and avoiding paying excessively for them. As Peter Lynch used to say, in the long term the price of a stock will follow the financial results of the company, regardless of the “drawings” on a chart. The real advantage of the analyst is understanding businesses and their prospects.

War is bombing Americans’ wallets

-During the election campaign, President Trump had promised that he would bring the cost of gasoline down to $2 per gallon (one gallon, 3.8 liters). Today that campaign promise is collapsing with a bang. U.S. crude oil (WTI) yesterday exceeded $78 per barrel, up +43% since December. Since the beginning of January, diesel futures have surged by +56% to $3.29 per gallon. The corresponding gasoline futures contracts are moving +48% higher at 251 cents. The national average for unleaded reached $3.11 per gallon, with a jump of 11 cents overnight. This is the largest daily increase since March 2022. Goldman Sachs has already raised its forecast for Brent oil to $76 per barrel for the second quarter, with a scenario of $100 if the Strait remains closed for 5 weeks, while JP Morgan sees even $120. The United States is the largest oil-producing country in the world, but American crude is mainly suitable for gasoline, not for diesel, kerosene and heavier fuels. Therefore, the country depends on imports for these products, which explains the disproportionate rise in diesel futures. Higher oil prices mean higher freight rates, more expenses for aviation fuel, higher distribution costs and ultimately higher prices for the American consumer. At gas stations across America drivers remember the campaign promise of $2. $3.25 per gallon is the new reality.

On Friday morning, Minister of Citizen Protection Michalis Chrysochoidis referred to suspects in Greece with ties to Iran who are currently under surveillance.

Speaking to SKAI, he said: “They are registered, but I consider that not the main risk. The issue is whether there will be directives to cause problems in Europe.”

According to Chrysochoidis, “The key issue is the protection of borders, as well as the possibility that the crisis could be exported through terrorism.”

He added: “A country like Greece, neighboring areas of conflict, must take all measures against threats that could potentially affect it. We must build what is called security. For internal security and terrorism issues, vigilance is crucial; what kills is routine and complacency.”

“The flow of migrants across the Evros River from Turkey is not happening; the Turks are cooperating. We have a problem in Crete, but it comes from a specific source. If a humanitarian crisis arises, there will also be issues with migration,” concluded the Minister of Citizen Protection.

Intense Israeli airstrikes struck the Iranian capital overnight, with residents of Tehran describing the bombardment as the most powerful since the conflict began. According to reports, Israeli forces targeted what they described as infrastructure linked to Iran’s military and security apparatus. Explosions were reported across several districts of the city, while parallel strikes were also carried out in southern Lebanon, further widening the geographical scope of the confrontation.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iran’s military and security forces, calling on members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the army, and the police to surrender their weapons. Speaking from the White House, Trump said those who laid down their arms would receive immunity and protection, while those who continued to resist would face “certain death.” He also stated that there was no specific timetable for ending the war, emphasizing that the United States intended to ensure that Iran could not acquire nuclear weapons or maintain ballistic missile capabilities.

Military developments in the region continued to escalate. The United States confirmed that it had struck an Iranian vessel carrying drones, with the U.S. Central Command reporting that the ship was now on fire. Meanwhile, Iran launched a wave of missile and drone attacks against several Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Explosions were reported in Abu Dhabi and near key energy infrastructure, while Saudi air defenses intercepted multiple drones east of Riyadh.

The conflict is also beginning to affect global markets and regional stability. Oil prices climbed sharply, with U.S. crude trading above $80 per barrel and Brent approaching $85 amid fears of supply disruptions. According to the United Nations Children’s Fund, nearly 200 children have been killed across the Middle East since the escalation began, highlighting the growing humanitarian toll of a conflict that now threatens to engulf a wider region.

İran’ın, Bahreyn’de ulusal petrol şirketi BAPCO’ya ait ana rafineriye ve yakınındaki diğer altyapı tesislerine balistik füze saldırısı düzenlediği bildirildi

Can kaybı veya yaralanmanın yaşanmadığı saldırı sonrası çıkan yangın, çevredekiler tarafından kaydedildi pic.twitter.com/qHWvKhxBkB

— Anadolu Ajansı (@anadoluajansi) March 5, 2026

Ask me anything

Explore related questions

The U.S. president Donald Trump said in an interview he gave on Thursday to Axios that he considers his own personal involvement necessary in selecting Iran’s next leader, as he claimed he did in Venezuela.

Trump insisted that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the most likely favorite for succession, is not an acceptable choice for Washington. He stressed that his possible election “would lead the United States back into war in five years” if he continues the same policies as his father.

Trump also said he wants to be personally involved so that a leader emerges who, as he said, will bring “harmony and peace” to Iran, rejecting the prospect of succession through the existing regime system.

“They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is insignificant. I must be involved in the selection, just as I was with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.”

“Herzog should pardon Netanyahu today”

Donald Trump also told Channel 12 that Israeli President Isaac Herzog should grant a pardon to Benjamin Netanyahu today.

“I don’t want anything to bother Bibi except the war with Iran,” the U.S. president clarified.

Trump also claimed that he has been speaking with Herzog about the issue of pardoning Netanyahu for a year: “He promised me five times that he would pardon Bibi. I told him I wouldn’t meet with him if he didn’t pardon Netanyahu.”

The C-130 carrying 91 Greek citizens landed shortly after 19:30 on Thursday (5/3) in Elefsina. The first to disembark from the aircraft was a woman with a small girl, while everyone thanked those responsible for their return to the country.

“I want to express my thanks and gratitude to the ambassador in Dubai. As soon as we contacted the embassy, I was impressed because he personally called us back at home. I truly feel grateful for the humanity he showed and how quickly he responded to our request. A big thank-you to the ambassador,” said a relative of one of the repatriated passengers.

Stelios Karagrigoriou was in Elefsina to welcome his son and daughter-in-law:
“I’m waiting for my son and my daughter-in-law. It was a great ordeal. For five or six days we didn’t sleep because we were anxious. I want to say a big thank-you to the Air Force that sent the C-130. I wouldn’t want anyone else to go through this—it was difficult. During the five days the kids were away, we didn’t sleep; our minds were constantly there.”

About 2.5 years after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has changed radically. Israel has consolidated itself as the dominant military power, Iran’s network of alliances is collapsing, and the region is entering a period of uncertainty with unpredictable geopolitical balances.

An order that changed the history of the Middle East

On a cool autumn morning in 2023, from an underground tunnel beneath the Gaza Strip, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar gave the order that sent thousands of the organization’s fighters across the fence separating Gaza from Israel. The attack that day triggered a chain of events that reshaped the Middle East on a scale comparable to the Arab Spring—or even the partition of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century.

However, according to the Washington Post, the course of events did not unfold according to the plan that the “mastermind” of the October 7 horror reportedly had in mind. Ironically, he would die about a year later in battles between Israeli soldiers and Hamas militants.

Twenty-nine months later, the Middle East has been transformed to such an extent that it is almost unrecognizable. Israel has established itself as the undisputed military hegemon, with its main adversaries either destroyed or politically and militarily decapitated. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is emerging as a key economic and political pillar of the region, while Gulf countries are trying to cope with the consequences of Iranian missile attacks.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians once again find themselves on the margins of developments. In Gaza, which has suffered massive destruction, the death toll is estimated at around 75,000, while in the West Bank the loss of territory continues.

The collapse of the “axis of resistance”

Nearly 2.5 years after the conflict in Gaza began, the network of forces that Sinwar expected would support him is falling apart.

In a development that dramatically altered the balance of power, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint airstrike by the United States and Israel.

The Iranian regime, which for four decades funded and armed the so-called “axis of resistance,” is now on the brink of collapse—a development that could also bring down organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Tehran is facing a chaotic and uncertain succession process while simultaneously escalating tensions with its neighbors by launching drones and missiles, often without a clear military target, sometimes striking civilian infrastructure.

At the same time, Syria’s former leader Bashar al-Assad is now living in exile in Moscow.

Netanyahu’s leadership and Trump’s strategy

A decisive role in these developments has been played by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite political crises, government deadlocks, corruption prosecutions, and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, he managed to remain in power and lead his country to unprecedented military dominance.

At the same time, Donald Trump returned to the White House after a politically turbulent period that included two impeachment proceedings, a felony conviction, and even an assassination attempt against him. After his re-election, Trump placed the United States in a military confrontation with Iran without seeking approval from Congress.

A new geopolitical reality

Despite accusations of genocide against Israel, a new generation of Israelis is now experiencing the traumatic realities of war, as previous generations did. At the same time, American soldiers are once again losing their lives in the Middle East in a war whose duration and objectives remain unclear.

Instead of weakening Israel and removing Western influence from the Middle East, the Hamas attack appears to have produced the exact opposite outcome. Israel strengthened its position and the United States has once again emerged as a decisive actor in regional developments.

Bilal Saab, an analyst at Chatham House and former Pentagon official, described Hamas’s initial calculation as “a colossal miscalculation with disastrous consequences,” noting that it “instantly changed the face of the Middle East.”

However, where these changes will ultimately lead remains an open question. The previous geopolitical structure—with Iran as a key destabilizing factor and its armed organizations as pressure tools—has essentially collapsed.

In its place is emerging an unstable mix of competing ambitions, new hostilities, devastated cities, and areas without effective or stable governance.

Israel’s dominance and neighbors’ concerns

Israel now holds a dominant position but at the same time faces increasing diplomatic isolation. Neighboring countries are watching with concern how it will use its military power and how it will manage the ongoing hostility of its defeated adversaries.

The Gulf states, including those that signed the Abraham Accords during the Trump presidency, now appear cautious about American security guarantees.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are redefining their strategies in the region, though it is not yet clear in which direction they will move or against which rivals.

Much will depend on who prevails in the succession battle in Tehran following Khamenei’s death.

A new, unpredictable chapter for the Middle East

The Middle East has experienced major geopolitical upheavals before. After World War I, European colonial powers drew the region’s borders on the map, creating the modern regional system. The Arab Spring of 2011 caused the first major cracks in that system.

Today, the region may be facing an even deeper transformation.

As Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, notes: “The region has changed forever.” The remaining question is what the consequences of that change will ultimately be.