Alarm in the Strait of Hormuz upgraded to “Extreme Risk” – Sailors killed and escalation of attacks on shipping

The EOS Risk Group has raised the threat level for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to “Extreme Risk” (5/5), warning shipping companies to postpone any transit through the critical maritime corridor until further notice.

The warning followed another fatal attack on a commercial ship while military tensions in the Middle East are intensifying.

According to the security update, the risk to commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and ports and anchorages in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar remains high (4/5), with an increased likelihood of further incidents.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated dramatically on the afternoon of March 4, when the risk assessment was raised to the maximum level. Since February 28, when the current conflict began, at least 13 commercial vessels have been attacked in the wider region.

The most serious incident occurred on March 6 at 15:47 UTC, when the UAE-flagged tugboat MUSSAFAH 2 was struck by an unidentified projectile while sailing in the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, all eight crew members were killed. The vessel had been heading to assist the container ship SAFEEN PRESTIGE, which had come under attack two days earlier.

EOS analysts note that since February 28, more sailors have already been killed in Iranian attacks than during the entire period of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping between 2023 and 2025, highlighting the rapid deterioration of security in the maritime area.

The EOS Risk Group is urging shipping companies to:

• postpone transits through the Strait of Hormuz
• reassess port calls and anchorage operations in Fujairah, Bahrain, and Qatar
• avoid staying in high-density ship anchorages, particularly near Fujairah
• follow instructions from local authorities, including possible “Shelter in Place” orders

It also warns that new attacks on commercial vessels are considered very likely in the near future, and that incidents involving misidentification of targets or collateral damage near anchorage areas cannot be ruled out.

At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East is expanding across multiple fronts. The United States has intensified operations, with B-2 bombers striking underground missile facilities in Iran, while CENTCOM announced that U.S. forces hit around 200 targets within 72 hours.

Meanwhile, Israeli fighter jets conducted strikes on underground command centers linked to the Iranian leadership’s emergency command network.

At sea, significant naval forces are moving toward the region. The USS Ford carrier strike group has left the Eastern Mediterranean and entered the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, while the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is also heading toward the Eastern Mediterranean escorted by European warships.

Alongside the attacks on shipping, Iran is reportedly increasing strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure. Between March 2 and March 7, 25 attacks involving 67 projectiles were recorded, including 13 incidents in the past 36 hours alone. Saudi air defenses intercepted 16 drones targeting the Al Shaybah oil field, one of Saudi Aramco’s most important sites with production of about 1 million barrels per day.

The new escalation is causing strong concern in the global shipping and energy markets, as around one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the threat of attacks rising and major naval forces concentrating in the region, the security of navigation in one of the world’s most important maritime corridors has reached a critical point.